Sorpresas predecibles: la crisis de las hipotecas basura

Artículo que explica cómo predecir el futuro de la economía fijándose en cómo se podrían haber predicho las crisis del pasado.

Subprime: A Predictable Surprise

Lessons to Be Learned

What should we take from all of this? First that many surprises really are predictable—it's not merely that they look that way in hindsight. Second, complexity, conflicts of interest, and collective action traps are at the root of most predictable surprises. So we shouldn't be surprised to see financial markets blow up in the future if:

1. We allow naive consumers to make highly complex financial decisions under the influence of sophisticated sellers. (Pension decisions associated with defined contribution plans is one such area that immediately comes to mind.)

2. We allow pernicious conflicts of interest to take root and thrive in our financial systems and we don't provide sufficient, coherent regulatory oversight. Proprietary trading and investment by investment banks certainly fits this bill, and I believe the arrangement will result in future predictable surprises.

3. We continue to ensnare the people who invest money on our behalf in a collective action trap by judging them on short-term, relative performance criteria, rather than long-term sustainable ones.