The Numbers Game, by Richard Feldman - a Magic: the Gathering Magic Fundamentals article
There are three basic criteria for deciding how many copies of a card should be played in your deck.
1) How early do I want to draw it?
2) How good or bad is it if I draw multiple copies?
3) The answers to #1 and #2 are at odds, which is more important?
Depending on your answer to Question #1 ("How early do I want to draw it?"), you submit a vote for a certain number of copies.
Some vague guidelines (guidelines, not rules!) for how the answers to these questions can translate into votes are as follows.
* If I want to play the card as early as possible (turns 1-4), that's a vote for four copies.
* If I want to play the card in the midgame (turns 5-9), that's a vote for three copies.
* If I want to play the card in the late game (turns 10-14), that's a vote for two copies.
* If I want to play the card only in very long games (turns 15 and later), that's a vote for one copy.
Next, take a look at Question #2 ("How good or bad is it if I draw multiple copies?").
* If the second copy I draw is either comparably good or better than the first copy, that's a vote for four copies.
* If the second copy I draw is expected to be significantly worse than the first copy, that's a vote for three copies.
* If the second copy I draw is unlikely to ever be played, that's a vote for two copies.
* If the second copy I draw is outright worthless or counterproductive under almost every situation, that's a vote for one copy.
Statistics:
chances of drawing...
...At least one copy in opening seven:
4-of: 40% of the time
3-of: 32% of the time
2-of: 22% of the time
1-of: 12% of the time
...At least one copy by turn 5:
4-of: 60% of the time
3-of: 49% of the time
2-of: 36% of the time
1-of: 20% of the time
...At least one copy by turn 10:
4-of: 75% of the time
3-of: 64% of the time
2-of: 49% of the time
1-of: 28% of the time
...At least two copies in opening seven:
4-of: 6% of the time
3-of: 3% of the time
2-of: 1% of the time
...At least two copies by turn 5:
4-of: 18% of the time
3-of: 10% of the time
2-of: 4% of the time
...At least two copies by turn 10:
4-of: 32% of the time
3-of: 19% of the time
2-of: 8% of the time
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